🧠 Metacognitive AI

Autonomous Agents • Confidence Scoring • Reflection Loops • Regime Detection

7 Signal Agents + Meta Layer Real-time Analysis 7 Strategies

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🧠 Meta Analysis: AAPL hold
Signal
hold
Confidence
38.1%
Regime
high_volatility
🤖 ML Forecast Status no_signal
Agent: ml_forecast_main
Confidence: 0.0%
Status: ML forecast unavailable: No live ensemble members were available for this symbol

Reflection Notes

⚠️ High signal dispersion - multiple conflicting signals detected
⚠️ Very low confidence in current signals - consider reducing position size

Agent Consensus

Showing all signal agents, including ML Forecast and Risk Manager.
AgentRoleSignalConfidence
researcher_main
Mixed signals from research
researcher hold 42.2%
trader_momentum
Momentum strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA
trader buy 46.8%
trader_reversion
Mean Reversion strategy: Bearish signals from RSI
trader sell 59.0%
trader_breakout
Breakout strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA
trader buy 57.0%
trader_trend
Trend Following strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA
trader buy 46.8%
ml_forecast_main
ML forecast unavailable: No live ensemble members were available for this symbol
executor no_signal 0.0%
risk_manager_main
Moderate risk: high volatility
risk_manager hold 56.0%
View Raw Data
{
  "symbol": "AAPL",
  "timestamp": "2026-07-18T17:52:56.884737",
  "execution_time_ms": 1161.74,
  "regime": "high_volatility",
  "asset_category": "Stocks",
  "ml_suppressed": false,
  "ml_suppression_reason": "",
  "final_signal": {
    "symbol": "AAPL",
    "signal_type": "hold",
    "confidence_level": "low",
    "confidence_score": 38.114136,
    "agent_consensus": {
      "researcher_main": "hold",
      "trader_momentum": "buy",
      "trader_reversion": "sell",
      "trader_breakout": "buy",
      "trader_trend": "buy",
      "ml_forecast_main": "no_signal",
      "risk_manager_main": "hold"
    },
    "risk_assessment": {
      "volatility_risk": 36.28516621279333,
      "regime_risk": "high_volatility",
      "confidence_adjusted": true,
      "position_size_factor": 0.0048,
      "capital_allocator": {
        "base_position": 0.3811,
        "regime_multiplier": 0.5,
        "disagreement_multiplier": 0.55,
        "conviction_multiplier": 0.2,
        "event_multiplier": 0.35,
        "volatility_multiplier": 0.65,
        "final_allocation": 0.0048,
        "conviction_used": "HOLD",
        "action_mode": "watchlist_bias_only",
        "asset_category": "Stocks",
        "asset_multiplier": 1.0
      }
    },
    "regime": "high_volatility",
    "reflection_notes": [
      "\u26a0\ufe0f High signal dispersion - multiple conflicting signals detected",
      "\u26a0\ufe0f High signal dispersion - multiple conflicting signals detected",
      "\u26a0\ufe0f High signal dispersion - multiple conflicting signals detected"
    ],
    "timestamp": "2026-07-18T17:52:56.884444",
    "expires_at": "2026-07-19T17:52:56.884433",
    "conviction": "HOLD"
  },
  "meta_analysis": {
    "consensus": "hold",
    "confidence_level": "very_low",
    "confidence_score": 21.97853111954607,
    "disagreement": 0.5714285714285714,
    "agent_breakdown": {
      "researcher_main": {
        "role": "researcher",
        "signal": "hold",
        "confidence": 42.19943567364498,
        "reasoning": "Mixed signals from research",
        "weak_bias": null,
        "directional_probability": null,
        "why_it_matters": null
      },
      "trader_momentum": {
        "role": "trader",
        "signal": "buy",
        "confidence": 46.75,
        "reasoning": "Momentum strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA",
        "weak_bias": null,
        "directional_probability": null,
        "why_it_matters": null
      },
      "trader_reversion": {
        "role": "trader",
        "signal": "sell",
        "confidence": 59.0,
        "reasoning": "Mean Reversion strategy: Bearish signals from RSI",
        "weak_bias": null,
        "directional_probability": null,
        "why_it_matters": null
      },
      "trader_breakout": {
        "role": "trader",
        "signal": "buy",
        "confidence": 57.0,
        "reasoning": "Breakout strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA",
        "weak_bias": null,
        "directional_probability": null,
        "why_it_matters": null
      },
      "trader_trend": {
        "role": "trader",
        "signal": "buy",
        "confidence": 46.75,
        "reasoning": "Trend Following strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA",
        "weak_bias": null,
        "directional_probability": null,
        "why_it_matters": null
      },
      "ml_forecast_main": {
        "role": "executor",
        "signal": "no_signal",
        "confidence": 0,
        "reasoning": "ML forecast unavailable: No live ensemble members were available for this symbol",
        "weak_bias": null,
        "directional_probability": null,
        "why_it_matters": null
      },
      "risk_manager_main": {
        "role": "risk_manager",
        "signal": "hold",
        "confidence": 56.00000000000001,
        "reasoning": "Moderate risk: high volatility",
        "weak_bias": null,
        "directional_probability": null,
        "why_it_matters": null
      }
    },
    "signal_counts": {
      "hold": 2,
      "buy": 3,
      "sell": 1,
      "no_signal": 1
    },
    "weak_bias_summary": {
      "overall_bias": "bullish",
      "ml_weight": 0.0,
      "dominant_agents": [
        "trader_reversion"
      ],
      "confidence_adjusted_bias": "bullish",
      "agent_biases": {}
    },
    "meta_probability": {
      "bullish": 0.571,
      "neutral": 0.205,
      "bearish": 0.224
    },
    "weighted_meta_components": {
      "bullish_weight": 0.5711,
      "neutral_weight": 0.205,
      "bearish_weight": 0.2239,
      "total_bias_weight": 1.0
    },
    "action_guidance": {
      "mode": "watchlist_bias_only",
      "trigger": "breakout above resistance (333.74) OR volume expansion",
      "risk_note": "high RSI (88.6) limits upside near-term; trend context: strong uptrend; agent disagreement is elevated"
    },
    "conviction": "HOLD",
    "portfolio_overlay": {
      "mode": "standalone",
      "related_symbols": [],
      "impact_scope": "single_symbol"
    },
    "event_overlay": {
      "significant_news": false,
      "news_volume": 8,
      "event_bias": "neutral",
      "trigger": null,
      "override_applied": false
    }
  },
  "agent_signals": [
    {
      "agent_id": "researcher_main",
      "agent_role": "researcher",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "hold",
      "confidence": 42.19943567364498,
      "reasoning": "Mixed signals from research",
      "timestamp": "2026-07-18T17:52:56.449696",
      "metadata": {
        "sentiment": -0.1900282163177509,
        "news_volume": 8,
        "pe_ratio": 40.31,
        "pb_ratio": 45.96,
        "eps": 8.28,
        "global_regime": "high_volatility",
        "detected_regime": "high_volatility"
      }
    },
    {
      "agent_id": "trader_momentum",
      "agent_role": "trader",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "buy",
      "confidence": 46.75,
      "reasoning": "Momentum strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA",
      "timestamp": "2026-07-18T17:52:56.482462",
      "metadata": {
        "price": 333.739990234375,
        "sma_20": 305.51799926757815,
        "sma_50": 302.6324157714844,
        "sma_200": 273.880447769165,
        "ema_12": 317.5524016373207,
        "ema_26": 308.730273641838,
        "macd": 8.822127995482731,
        "macd_signal": 5.487913300286963,
        "macd_hist": 3.334214695195768,
        "rsi_14": 88.58509070185222,
        "bb_upper": 339.20365527455215,
        "bb_middle": 305.51799926757815,
        "bb_lower": 271.83234326060415,
        "bb_width": 0.22051503405841236,
        "bb_position": 0.9189022021859097,
        "atr_14": 8.255715506417411,
        "volume_ratio": 0.9399171574452797,
        "obv": 1384294700.0,
        "support_60d": 267.3636474609375,
        "resistance_60d": 333.739990234375,
        "adx": 4.411668352808558,
        "volatility_20d": 36.28516621279333,
        "volatility_60d": 28.039065461616413,
        "crossovers": {
          "golden_cross": "False",
          "death_cross": "False",
          "price_above_50": "True",
          "price_above_200": "True",
          "macd_bullish": "False",
          "macd_bearish": "False"
        },
        "trend": "strong_uptrend",
        "global_regime": "high_volatility",
        "detected_regime": "high_volatility"
      }
    },
    {
      "agent_id": "trader_reversion",
      "agent_role": "trader",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "sell",
      "confidence": 59.0,
      "reasoning": "Mean Reversion strategy: Bearish signals from RSI",
      "timestamp": "2026-07-18T17:52:56.511458",
      "metadata": {
        "price": 333.739990234375,
        "sma_20": 305.51799926757815,
        "sma_50": 302.6324157714844,
        "sma_200": 273.880447769165,
        "ema_12": 317.5524016373207,
        "ema_26": 308.730273641838,
        "macd": 8.822127995482731,
        "macd_signal": 5.487913300286963,
        "macd_hist": 3.334214695195768,
        "rsi_14": 88.58509070185222,
        "bb_upper": 339.20365527455215,
        "bb_middle": 305.51799926757815,
        "bb_lower": 271.83234326060415,
        "bb_width": 0.22051503405841236,
        "bb_position": 0.9189022021859097,
        "atr_14": 8.255715506417411,
        "volume_ratio": 0.9399171574452797,
        "obv": 1384294700.0,
        "support_60d": 267.3636474609375,
        "resistance_60d": 333.739990234375,
        "adx": 4.411668352808558,
        "volatility_20d": 36.28516621279333,
        "volatility_60d": 28.039065461616413,
        "crossovers": {
          "golden_cross": "False",
          "death_cross": "False",
          "price_above_50": "True",
          "price_above_200": "True",
          "macd_bullish": "False",
          "macd_bearish": "False"
        },
        "trend": "strong_uptrend",
        "global_regime": "high_volatility",
        "detected_regime": "high_volatility"
      }
    },
    {
      "agent_id": "trader_breakout",
      "agent_role": "trader",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "buy",
      "confidence": 57.0,
      "reasoning": "Breakout strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA",
      "timestamp": "2026-07-18T17:52:56.545357",
      "metadata": {
        "price": 333.739990234375,
        "sma_20": 305.51799926757815,
        "sma_50": 302.6324157714844,
        "sma_200": 273.880447769165,
        "ema_12": 317.5524016373207,
        "ema_26": 308.730273641838,
        "macd": 8.822127995482731,
        "macd_signal": 5.487913300286963,
        "macd_hist": 3.334214695195768,
        "rsi_14": 88.58509070185222,
        "bb_upper": 339.20365527455215,
        "bb_middle": 305.51799926757815,
        "bb_lower": 271.83234326060415,
        "bb_width": 0.22051503405841236,
        "bb_position": 0.9189022021859097,
        "atr_14": 8.255715506417411,
        "volume_ratio": 0.9399171574452797,
        "obv": 1384294700.0,
        "support_60d": 267.3636474609375,
        "resistance_60d": 333.739990234375,
        "adx": 4.411668352808558,
        "volatility_20d": 36.28516621279333,
        "volatility_60d": 28.039065461616413,
        "crossovers": {
          "golden_cross": "False",
          "death_cross": "False",
          "price_above_50": "True",
          "price_above_200": "True",
          "macd_bullish": "False",
          "macd_bearish": "False"
        },
        "trend": "strong_uptrend",
        "global_regime": "high_volatility",
        "detected_regime": "high_volatility"
      }
    },
    {
      "agent_id": "trader_trend",
      "agent_role": "trader",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "buy",
      "confidence": 46.75,
      "reasoning": "Trend Following strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA",
      "timestamp": "2026-07-18T17:52:56.576013",
      "metadata": {
        "price": 333.739990234375,
        "sma_20": 305.51799926757815,
        "sma_50": 302.6324157714844,
        "sma_200": 273.880447769165,
        "ema_12": 317.5524016373207,
        "ema_26": 308.730273641838,
        "macd": 8.822127995482731,
        "macd_signal": 5.487913300286963,
        "macd_hist": 3.334214695195768,
        "rsi_14": 88.58509070185222,
        "bb_upper": 339.20365527455215,
        "bb_middle": 305.51799926757815,
        "bb_lower": 271.83234326060415,
        "bb_width": 0.22051503405841236,
        "bb_position": 0.9189022021859097,
        "atr_14": 8.255715506417411,
        "volume_ratio": 0.9399171574452797,
        "obv": 1384294700.0,
        "support_60d": 267.3636474609375,
        "resistance_60d": 333.739990234375,
        "adx": 4.411668352808558,
        "volatility_20d": 36.28516621279333,
        "volatility_60d": 28.039065461616413,
        "crossovers": {
          "golden_cross": "False",
          "death_cross": "False",
          "price_above_50": "True",
          "price_above_200": "True",
          "macd_bullish": "False",
          "macd_bearish": "False"
        },
        "trend": "strong_uptrend",
        "global_regime": "high_volatility",
        "detected_regime": "high_volatility"
      }
    },
    {
      "agent_id": "ml_forecast_main",
      "agent_role": "executor",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "no_signal",
      "confidence": 0,
      "reasoning": "ML forecast unavailable: No live ensemble members were available for this symbol",
      "timestamp": "2026-07-18T17:52:56.787745",
      "metadata": {
        "source": "trained_ml",
        "global_regime": "high_volatility",
        "detected_regime": "high_volatility",
        "market_regime": "high_volatility",
        "coverage_snapshot": {
          "symbol": "AAPL",
          "roots": [
            "/home/forpy/public_html/python_app/modules/ml/ml_models",
            "/home/forpy/public_html/python_app/modules/ml/ml_models/research"
          ],
          "method_counts": {},
          "latest_artifacts": {},
          "total_matches": 0,
          "has_any": false
        },
        "selector_payload": {
          "error": "No live ensemble members were available for this symbol",
          "error_code": "NO_ENSEMBLE_MEMBERS",
          "symbol": "AAPL",
          "horizon": "5d",
          "selected_model": "ensemble"
        },
        "action_layer": {
          "regime": "high_volatility"
        },
        "quality_gate": {
          "global_regime": "high_volatility"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "agent_id": "risk_manager_main",
      "agent_role": "risk_manager",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "hold",
      "confidence": 56.00000000000001,
      "reasoning": "Moderate risk: high volatility",
      "timestamp": "2026-07-18T17:52:56.861653",
      "metadata": {
        "regime": "high_volatility",
        "volatility": 36.28516621279333,
        "risk_level": "high",
        "current_drawdown": 0.0,
        "max_drawdown_1y": -13.798524071888174,
        "risk_action": "CAUTION",
        "global_regime": "high_volatility",
        "detected_regime": "high_volatility"
      }
    }
  ],
  "reflection_notes": [
    "\u26a0\ufe0f High signal dispersion - multiple conflicting signals detected",
    "\u26a0\ufe0f Very low confidence in current signals - consider reducing position size"
  ],
  "drift_analysis": {
    "drift_detected": false,
    "drift_score": 0,
    "regime_changes_30d": 0,
    "current_regime": "high_volatility",
    "recommendation": "Models performing as expected"
  },
  "technical_summary": {
    "price": 333.739990234375,
    "rsi": 88.58509070185222,
    "trend": "strong_uptrend",
    "volatility": 36.28516621279333,
    "support": 267.3636474609375,
    "resistance": 333.739990234375
  }
}
📄 PDF Report 📊 Excel Report 🔧 JSON Data
🤖 Active Agent Architecture

Research & Analysis

  • • Researcher Agent - Fundamentals & Sentiment
  • • Trader (Momentum) - Technical Momentum
  • • Trader (Mean Reversion) - Oversold/Overbought
  • • Trader (Breakout) - Price Breakouts
  • • ML Forecast Agent - Trained Model Inference

Risk & Meta

  • • Trader (Trend Following) - Trend Analysis
  • • Risk Manager - Volatility & Drawdown
  • • Meta Analyst - Consensus & Confidence