🧠 Metacognitive AI

Autonomous Agents • Confidence Scoring • Reflection Loops • Regime Detection

7 Signal Agents + Meta Layer Real-time Analysis 7 Strategies

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🧠 Meta Analysis: AAPL hold
Signal
hold
Confidence
60.8%
Regime
sideways
🤖 ML Forecast Status hold
Agent: ml_forecast_main
Confidence: 8.0%
Status: Trained ML stack selected ENSEMBLE. Used ranked direct-model fallback because no selector winner was available. Directional forecast: neutral. Expected 5-day move: 0.04%. Probability view: 50.4% up / 49.6% down (balanced). ML stays in informational mode because the selector edge is modest at the 5-day horizon. Why it matters: Model edge is very small, so ML stays informational rather than actionable. Probability tilt is 50.4% up vs 49.6% down. Expected move is extremely small over the forecast horizon in a sideways consolidation regime with range-bound movement and low trend conviction.

Reflection Notes

⚠️ Wide confidence gap (8-77%)

Agent Consensus

Showing all signal agents, including ML Forecast and Risk Manager.
AgentRoleSignalConfidence
researcher_main
Positive sentiment (0.55) with high news volume
 researcher buy 77.4%
trader_momentum
Momentum strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA
 trader buy 46.8%
trader_reversion
Mean Reversion strategy: Neutral market conditions
 trader hold 46.8%
trader_breakout
Breakout strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA
 trader buy 57.0%
trader_trend
Trend Following strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA
 trader buy 46.8%
ml_forecast_main
Trained ML stack selected ENSEMBLE. Used ranked direct-model fallback because no selector winner was available. Directional forecast: neutral. Expected 5-day move: 0.04%. Probability view: 50.4% up / 49.6% down (balanced). ML stays in informational mode because the selector edge is modest at the 5-day horizon. Why it matters: Model edge is very small, so ML stays informational rather than actionable. Probability tilt is 50.4% up vs 49.6% down. Expected move is extremely small over the forecast horizon in a sideways consolidation regime with range-bound movement and low trend conviction. | Model: ensemble | 5D move: 0.04%
 executor hold 8.0%
risk_manager_main
Moderate risk: moderate volatility
 risk_manager hold 64.0%
View Raw Data 
{
  "symbol": "AAPL",
  "timestamp": "2026-10-22T18:37:17.129469",
  "execution_time_ms": 2480.1,
  "regime": "sideways",
  "asset_category": "Stocks",
  "ml_suppressed": false,
  "ml_suppression_reason": "",
  "final_signal": {
    "symbol": "AAPL",
    "signal_type": "hold",
    "confidence_level": "medium",
    "confidence_score": 60.789919999999995,
    "agent_consensus": {
      "researcher_main": "buy",
      "trader_momentum": "buy",
      "trader_reversion": "hold",
      "trader_breakout": "buy",
      "trader_trend": "buy",
      "ml_forecast_main": "hold",
      "risk_manager_main": "hold"
    },
    "risk_assessment": {
      "volatility_risk": 17.39566090544962,
      "regime_risk": "sideways",
      "confidence_adjusted": false,
      "position_size_factor": 0.0479,
      "capital_allocator": {
        "base_position": 0.6079,
        "regime_multiplier": 0.75,
        "disagreement_multiplier": 0.7,
        "conviction_multiplier": 0.2,
        "event_multiplier": 0.75,
        "volatility_multiplier": 1.0,
        "final_allocation": 0.0479,
        "conviction_used": "HOLD",
        "action_mode": "lean_long",
        "asset_category": "Stocks",
        "asset_multiplier": 1.0
      }
    },
    "regime": "sideways",
    "reflection_notes": [
      "\u26a0\ufe0f Wide confidence gap (8-77%)"
    ],
    "timestamp": "2026-10-22T18:37:17.129109",
    "expires_at": "2026-10-23T18:37:17.129096",
    "conviction": "HOLD"
  },
  "meta_analysis": {
    "consensus": "hold",
    "confidence_level": "low",
    "confidence_score": 38.911866359447004,
    "disagreement": 0.4285714285714286,
    "agent_breakdown": {
      "researcher_main": {
        "role": "researcher",
        "signal": "buy",
        "confidence": 77.41935483870968,
        "reasoning": "Positive sentiment (0.55) with high news volume",
        "weak_bias": null,
        "directional_probability": null,
        "why_it_matters": null
      },
      "trader_momentum": {
        "role": "trader",
        "signal": "buy",
        "confidence": 46.75,
        "reasoning": "Momentum strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA",
        "weak_bias": null,
        "directional_probability": null,
        "why_it_matters": null
      },
      "trader_reversion": {
        "role": "trader",
        "signal": "hold",
        "confidence": 46.75,
        "reasoning": "Mean Reversion strategy: Neutral market conditions",
        "weak_bias": null,
        "directional_probability": null,
        "why_it_matters": null
      },
      "trader_breakout": {
        "role": "trader",
        "signal": "buy",
        "confidence": 57.0,
        "reasoning": "Breakout strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA",
        "weak_bias": null,
        "directional_probability": null,
        "why_it_matters": null
      },
      "trader_trend": {
        "role": "trader",
        "signal": "buy",
        "confidence": 46.75,
        "reasoning": "Trend Following strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA",
        "weak_bias": null,
        "directional_probability": null,
        "why_it_matters": null
      },
      "ml_forecast_main": {
        "role": "executor",
        "signal": "hold",
        "confidence": 8.0,
        "reasoning": "Trained ML stack selected ENSEMBLE. Used ranked direct-model fallback because no selector winner was available. Directional forecast: neutral. Expected 5-day move: 0.04%. Probability view: 50.4% up / 49.6% down (balanced). ML stays in informational mode because the selector edge is modest at the 5-day horizon. Why it matters: Model edge is very small, so ML stays informational rather than actionable. Probability tilt is 50.4% up vs 49.6% down. Expected move is extremely small over the forecast horizon in a sideways consolidation regime with range-bound movement and low trend conviction.",
        "weak_bias": "neutral",
        "directional_probability": {
          "up_pct": 50.4,
          "down_pct": 49.6,
          "band": "balanced"
        },
        "why_it_matters": "Model edge is very small, so ML stays informational rather than actionable. Probability tilt is 50.4% up vs 49.6% down. Expected move is extremely small over the forecast horizon in a sideways consolidation regime with range-bound movement and low trend conviction."
      },
      "risk_manager_main": {
        "role": "risk_manager",
        "signal": "hold",
        "confidence": 63.99999999999999,
        "reasoning": "Moderate risk: moderate volatility",
        "weak_bias": null,
        "directional_probability": null,
        "why_it_matters": null
      }
    },
    "signal_counts": {
      "buy": 4,
      "hold": 3
    },
    "weak_bias_summary": {
      "overall_bias": "bullish",
      "ml_weight": 0.08,
      "dominant_agents": [
        "researcher_main"
      ],
      "confidence_adjusted_bias": "bullish",
      "agent_biases": {}
    },
    "meta_probability": {
      "bullish": 0.782,
      "neutral": 0.218,
      "bearish": 0.0
    },
    "weighted_meta_components": {
      "bullish_weight": 0.7824,
      "neutral_weight": 0.2176,
      "bearish_weight": 0.0,
      "total_bias_weight": 1.0
    },
    "action_guidance": {
      "mode": "lean_long",
      "trigger": "breakout above resistance (345.88) OR volume expansion",
      "risk_note": "high RSI (72.5) limits upside near-term; trend context: strong uptrend; agent disagreement is elevated"
    },
    "conviction": "HOLD",
    "portfolio_overlay": {
      "mode": "standalone",
      "related_symbols": [],
      "impact_scope": "single_symbol"
    },
    "event_overlay": {
      "significant_news": true,
      "news_volume": 69,
      "event_bias": "neutral",
      "trigger": null,
      "override_applied": false
    }
  },
  "agent_signals": [
    {
      "agent_id": "researcher_main",
      "agent_role": "researcher",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "buy",
      "confidence": 77.41935483870968,
      "reasoning": "Positive sentiment (0.55) with high news volume",
      "timestamp": "2026-10-22T18:37:16.041996",
      "metadata": {
        "sentiment": 0.5483870967741935,
        "news_volume": 69,
        "significant_news": true,
        "global_regime": "sideways",
        "detected_regime": "sideways"
      }
    },
    {
      "agent_id": "trader_momentum",
      "agent_role": "trader",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "buy",
      "confidence": 46.75,
      "reasoning": "Momentum strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA",
      "timestamp": "2026-10-22T18:37:16.070859",
      "metadata": {
        "price": 345.875,
        "sma_20": 338.0522521972656,
        "sma_50": 327.7357000732422,
        "sma_200": 293.244041519165,
        "ema_12": 340.6859509524233,
        "ema_26": 336.6775278538354,
        "macd": 4.008423098587912,
        "macd_signal": 3.9581778612381644,
        "macd_hist": 0.050245237349747285,
        "rsi_14": 72.50763051357596,
        "bb_upper": 347.49410039656607,
        "bb_middle": 338.0522521972656,
        "bb_lower": 328.61040399796514,
        "bb_width": 0.055860288685731396,
        "bb_position": 0.9142593503734774,
        "atr_14": 6.047860281808036,
        "volume_ratio": 0.6091147851243457,
        "obv": 1006492193.0,
        "support_60d": 302.25,
        "resistance_60d": 345.875,
        "adx": 2.173145562498797,
        "volatility_20d": 17.39566090544962,
        "volatility_60d": 24.70410281259445,
        "crossovers": {
          "golden_cross": "False",
          "death_cross": "False",
          "price_above_50": "True",
          "price_above_200": "True",
          "macd_bullish": "True",
          "macd_bearish": "False"
        },
        "trend": "strong_uptrend",
        "global_regime": "sideways",
        "detected_regime": "sideways"
      }
    },
    {
      "agent_id": "trader_reversion",
      "agent_role": "trader",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "hold",
      "confidence": 46.75,
      "reasoning": "Mean Reversion strategy: Neutral market conditions",
      "timestamp": "2026-10-22T18:37:16.100285",
      "metadata": {
        "price": 345.875,
        "sma_20": 338.0522521972656,
        "sma_50": 327.7357000732422,
        "sma_200": 293.244041519165,
        "ema_12": 340.6859509524233,
        "ema_26": 336.6775278538354,
        "macd": 4.008423098587912,
        "macd_signal": 3.9581778612381644,
        "macd_hist": 0.050245237349747285,
        "rsi_14": 72.50763051357596,
        "bb_upper": 347.49410039656607,
        "bb_middle": 338.0522521972656,
        "bb_lower": 328.61040399796514,
        "bb_width": 0.055860288685731396,
        "bb_position": 0.9142593503734774,
        "atr_14": 6.047860281808036,
        "volume_ratio": 0.6091147851243457,
        "obv": 1006492193.0,
        "support_60d": 302.25,
        "resistance_60d": 345.875,
        "adx": 2.173145562498797,
        "volatility_20d": 17.39566090544962,
        "volatility_60d": 24.70410281259445,
        "crossovers": {
          "golden_cross": "False",
          "death_cross": "False",
          "price_above_50": "True",
          "price_above_200": "True",
          "macd_bullish": "True",
          "macd_bearish": "False"
        },
        "trend": "strong_uptrend",
        "global_regime": "sideways",
        "detected_regime": "sideways"
      }
    },
    {
      "agent_id": "trader_breakout",
      "agent_role": "trader",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "buy",
      "confidence": 57.0,
      "reasoning": "Breakout strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA",
      "timestamp": "2026-10-22T18:37:16.129941",
      "metadata": {
        "price": 345.875,
        "sma_20": 338.0522521972656,
        "sma_50": 327.7357000732422,
        "sma_200": 293.244041519165,
        "ema_12": 340.6859509524233,
        "ema_26": 336.6775278538354,
        "macd": 4.008423098587912,
        "macd_signal": 3.9581778612381644,
        "macd_hist": 0.050245237349747285,
        "rsi_14": 72.50763051357596,
        "bb_upper": 347.49410039656607,
        "bb_middle": 338.0522521972656,
        "bb_lower": 328.61040399796514,
        "bb_width": 0.055860288685731396,
        "bb_position": 0.9142593503734774,
        "atr_14": 6.047860281808036,
        "volume_ratio": 0.6091147851243457,
        "obv": 1006492193.0,
        "support_60d": 302.25,
        "resistance_60d": 345.875,
        "adx": 2.173145562498797,
        "volatility_20d": 17.39566090544962,
        "volatility_60d": 24.70410281259445,
        "crossovers": {
          "golden_cross": "False",
          "death_cross": "False",
          "price_above_50": "True",
          "price_above_200": "True",
          "macd_bullish": "True",
          "macd_bearish": "False"
        },
        "trend": "strong_uptrend",
        "global_regime": "sideways",
        "detected_regime": "sideways"
      }
    },
    {
      "agent_id": "trader_trend",
      "agent_role": "trader",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "buy",
      "confidence": 46.75,
      "reasoning": "Trend Following strategy: Bullish signals from MACD, MA",
      "timestamp": "2026-10-22T18:37:16.159502",
      "metadata": {
        "price": 345.875,
        "sma_20": 338.0522521972656,
        "sma_50": 327.7357000732422,
        "sma_200": 293.244041519165,
        "ema_12": 340.6859509524233,
        "ema_26": 336.6775278538354,
        "macd": 4.008423098587912,
        "macd_signal": 3.9581778612381644,
        "macd_hist": 0.050245237349747285,
        "rsi_14": 72.50763051357596,
        "bb_upper": 347.49410039656607,
        "bb_middle": 338.0522521972656,
        "bb_lower": 328.61040399796514,
        "bb_width": 0.055860288685731396,
        "bb_position": 0.9142593503734774,
        "atr_14": 6.047860281808036,
        "volume_ratio": 0.6091147851243457,
        "obv": 1006492193.0,
        "support_60d": 302.25,
        "resistance_60d": 345.875,
        "adx": 2.173145562498797,
        "volatility_20d": 17.39566090544962,
        "volatility_60d": 24.70410281259445,
        "crossovers": {
          "golden_cross": "False",
          "death_cross": "False",
          "price_above_50": "True",
          "price_above_200": "True",
          "macd_bullish": "True",
          "macd_bearish": "False"
        },
        "trend": "strong_uptrend",
        "global_regime": "sideways",
        "detected_regime": "sideways"
      }
    },
    {
      "agent_id": "ml_forecast_main",
      "agent_role": "executor",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "hold",
      "confidence": 8.0,
      "reasoning": "Trained ML stack selected ENSEMBLE. Used ranked direct-model fallback because no selector winner was available. Directional forecast: neutral. Expected 5-day move: 0.04%. Probability view: 50.4% up / 49.6% down (balanced). ML stays in informational mode because the selector edge is modest at the 5-day horizon. Why it matters: Model edge is very small, so ML stays informational rather than actionable. Probability tilt is 50.4% up vs 49.6% down. Expected move is extremely small over the forecast horizon in a sideways consolidation regime with range-bound movement and low trend conviction.",
      "timestamp": "2026-10-22T18:37:17.020914",
      "metadata": {
        "source": "trained_ml",
        "global_regime": "sideways",
        "detected_regime": "sideways",
        "market_regime": "sideways",
        "coverage_snapshot": {
          "symbol": "AAPL",
          "roots": [
            "/home/forpy/public_html/python_app/modules/ml/ml_models",
            "/home/forpy/public_html/python_app/modules/ml/ml_models/research"
          ],
          "method_counts": {
            "rf": 15,
            "xgb": 15,
            "lightgbm": 15
          },
          "latest_artifacts": {
            "rf": "/home/forpy/public_html/python_app/modules/ml/ml_models/research/AAPL_rf_5d_20260430.pkl",
            "xgb": "/home/forpy/public_html/python_app/modules/ml/ml_models/research/AAPL_xgb_5d_20260430.pkl",
            "lightgbm": "/home/forpy/public_html/python_app/modules/ml/ml_models/research/AAPL_lightgbm_5d_20260430.pkl"
          },
          "total_matches": 45,
          "has_any": true
        },
        "selector_payload": {
          "error": "No backtest winner available for this symbol",
          "error_code": "NO_BACKTEST_WINNER",
          "symbol": "AAPL",
          "horizon": "5d"
        },
        "live_model_attempts": [
          {
            "method": "ensemble",
            "status": "ok",
            "quality_score": 11.47
          },
          {
            "method": "xgb",
            "status": "ok",
            "quality_score": 9.49
          },
          {
            "method": "rf",
            "status": "ok",
            "quality_score": 7.88
          },
          {
            "method": "lstm",
            "status": "error",
            "detail": "Model not trained for this symbol",
            "error_code": "MODEL_NOT_TRAINED"
          },
          {
            "method": "gru",
            "status": "error",
            "detail": "Model not trained for this symbol",
            "error_code": "MODEL_NOT_TRAINED"
          }
        ],
        "selected_model": "ensemble",
        "selection_source": "ranked_direct_fallback",
        "expected_move_pct": 0.04,
        "direction": "neutral",
        "score": 0.38,
        "selector_score": 0.0,
        "derived_score": 0.38,
        "institutional_ml_score": 11.1,
        "used_live_model_fallback": true,
        "directional_probability": {
          "up_pct": 50.4,
          "down_pct": 49.6,
          "band": "balanced"
        },
        "weak_bias": "neutral",
        "quality_gate": {
          "passed": false,
          "reason": "neutral_micro_move",
          "selection_source": "ranked_direct_fallback",
          "expected_move_pct": 0.04,
          "confidence_before_gate": 5.0,
          "confidence_after_gate": 8.0,
          "score_before_gate": 0.38,
          "applied_as_soft_cap": true,
          "probability_band": "balanced",
          "weak_bias": "neutral",
          "global_regime": "sideways"
        },
        "action_layer": {
          "applied": false,
          "reason": null,
          "prob_up_pct": 50.4,
          "weak_bias": "neutral",
          "selector_score": 0.0,
          "score_used": 0.38,
          "institutional_ml_score": 11.1,
          "expected_move_pct": 0.04,
          "regime": "sideways"
        },
        "weak_bias_signal": "hold",
        "why_it_matters": "Model edge is very small, so ML stays informational rather than actionable. Probability tilt is 50.4% up vs 49.6% down. Expected move is extremely small over the forecast horizon in a sideways consolidation regime with range-bound movement and low trend conviction."
      }
    },
    {
      "agent_id": "risk_manager_main",
      "agent_role": "risk_manager",
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "signal_type": "hold",
      "confidence": 63.99999999999999,
      "reasoning": "Moderate risk: moderate volatility",
      "timestamp": "2026-10-22T18:37:17.102083",
      "metadata": {
        "regime": "sideways",
        "volatility": 17.39566090544962,
        "risk_level": "moderate",
        "current_drawdown": 0.0,
        "max_drawdown_1y": -13.798523953754415,
        "risk_action": "NEUTRAL",
        "global_regime": "sideways",
        "detected_regime": "sideways"
      }
    }
  ],
  "reflection_notes": [
    "\u26a0\ufe0f Wide confidence gap (8-77%)"
  ],
  "drift_analysis": {
    "drift_detected": false,
    "drift_score": 0,
    "regime_changes_30d": 0,
    "current_regime": "sideways",
    "recommendation": "Models performing as expected"
  },
  "technical_summary": {
    "price": 345.875,
    "rsi": 72.50763051357596,
    "trend": "strong_uptrend",
    "volatility": 17.39566090544962,
    "support": 302.25,
    "resistance": 345.875
  }
}
📄 PDF Report 📊 Excel Report 🔧 JSON Data
🤖 Active Agent Architecture

Research & Analysis

  • • Researcher Agent - Fundamentals & Sentiment
  • • Trader (Momentum) - Technical Momentum
  • • Trader (Mean Reversion) - Oversold/Overbought
  • • Trader (Breakout) - Price Breakouts
  • • ML Forecast Agent - Trained Model Inference

Risk & Meta

  • • Trader (Trend Following) - Trend Analysis
  • • Risk Manager - Volatility & Drawdown
  • • Meta Analyst - Consensus & Confidence